How Long Could You Stay Out of Sight?

Maybe you’re like us and have often wondered, “How long would I get away from the police before I was caught?”

Christopher Peters, a data scientist, decided to find out by collecting information on the 500 criminals who have been on the FBI’s Most Wanted Fugitives List since 1950. He figured out how long each criminal had been on the list before they were caught (though some have yet to be caught).

Step two was to figure out how long the average fugitive had been on the run. Peters couldn’t just take an average, though. The problem was that there are still criminals running around. If he leaves them out of the data set, the research question would change to “How long did criminals who were dumb enough to get caught stay free?”. Which is not what we want to know.

To get around this problem, Peters tried to figure out how long these criminals who were still wanted could stay free. He used something in statistics called “survival analysis” (often used in medical research). This method would help figure out how much longer fugitives who haven’t been caught yet could expect to stay on the run.

After doing this analysis, Peters came to the conclusion that most people on the Most Wanted List stay free for 1.67 years on average without a new identity.

As you can see, a person on the run doesn’t have a lot of chances. Only 25% of all criminals on the list hadn’t been caught a year after being put on it. Less than 10% of people on the run stayed free for 5 years. Bin Laden was technically free for more than 10 years, but he was also safe in caves and compounds with lots of guards. But once a criminal is on the Most Wanted List, law enforcement usually does a good job of catching them.

But let’s say you were trying to avoid the police. What’s the best long-term plan for getting away from the police? Do you think you could stay free for more than the average amount of time?

      1. Never talk directly to the family. Always use a middle man.

      2. Only use cash that is $20 or less.

      3. Go where nobody else is. Woods, islands, sewer systems, etc.

      4. Don’t be a bother.

      5. Don’t stop looking behind you.

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source https://www.amicusint.ca/how-long-could-you-stay-out-of-sight/